Tariff fears drove US refined copper imports to record high in July

US refined copper imports surged to 221kt in July – the highest monthly total since records began 1989 – as buyers rushed shipments into the country ahead of the anticipated 50% tariff on refined imports announced by President Donald Trump in early July.

The market had long anticipated a tariff, but thescale and immediacy of the measure caught market participants off guard, with only weeks between the 8 July announcement and its formal introduction on 1 August. Futures prices spiked, with the LME/CME arbitrage reaching all-time highs of more than $2,950/t in the aftermath of the announcement.

Reports in July indicated that many traders would struggle to redirect material in time from Chile and Europe, given the narrow window before implementation. However, US customs data shows that significant additional volumes did arrive, with July imports rising sharply from June.

The surge was tempered only after the US administration confirmed that copper cathode would be excluded from the tariff list,which caused the LME/CME arbitrage to collapseimmediately. But by then, significant volumes had already entered the country.

With July’s inflows pushing cumulative 2025 imports above all full-year totals since 2001, despite only seven months of data, a sharp fall in import volumes from August is expected as buyers draw down swollen inventories.

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