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The lithium market has shifted from speciality chemical pricing, dominated by fixed, bilateral contracts, to a more commoditized and financially sophisticated structure. Surging demand, especially from the EV sector, drove adoption of index-linked pricing and spot trading, boosting liquidity and standardization. However, extreme volatility between 2021 and 2023 made hedging challenging, as cash flow mismatches and legacy contracts limited participation in derivatives. Over the past 18 months, reduced volatility has fostered greater market stability and increased open interest in lithium derivatives. Yet, significant basis risk has hampered broader use of financial hedging.

While global pre-treatment capacity is widespread, integrated and refining facilities to extract critical battery minerals are unevenly distributed. This undermines battery supply chain localisation efforts, as regions lacking in refining or integrated recovery capacity must export battery scrap or black mass, along with the critical minerals they contain. This map tracks the state of play of the global battery recycling industry as of 2025.

<div id="content" class="pt-2 px-2 w-full" dir="auto"> <div id="content" class="pt-2 px-2 w-full" dir="auto"> <p class="leading-7 font-sans text-foreground font-normal mb-5 last:mb-0" title="Africa’s rich endowment of critical minerals is positioning the continent as a key player in the global energy transition, driving demand for electric vehicles and renewable energy. While China leads investment, the US and EU seek greater involvement to diversify supply chains. Yet, political risks, infrastructure gaps, and limited value-added manufacturing threaten Africa’s ability to fully benefit. Can African nations move beyond raw material exports to secure lasting economic transformation?">Africa’s rich endowment of critical minerals is positioning the continent as a key player in the global energy transition. While China leads investment, the US and EU seek greater involvement to diversify supply chains. Yet, political risks, infrastructure gaps, and limited value-added manufacturing threaten Africa’s ability to fully benefit. Can African nations move beyond raw material exports to secure lasting economic transformation?</p> </div> </div> <div class="h-6"> <div class="flex items-center gap-5 text-sm group-hover:visible hover:cursor-pointer md:flex-row"> <div class="flex gap-1 items-center hover:text-primary" tabindex="0" role="button"></div> </div> </div>

CATL’s suspension of output at its Jianxiawo lithium mine in Jiangxi province — accounting for ~3% of global supply — comes alongside reports of a brief outage at Albemarle’s La Negra chemical plant in Chile after an acid tank explosion. While both events have sparked supply concerns, stockpiled feedstock and limited production impacts suggest fundamentals remain intact. With sentiment already lifting prices, could these disruptions fuel a speculative rally even in the absence of a real supply squeeze?

The 2024–25 lithium price crash has not triggered the mine closures many expected. Unlike the rapid retrenchment of 2020, this downturn is shaped by long-term strategic capital, geopolitical alignment, and vertically integrated supply chains—especially from Chinese and OEM-backed players. Benchmark’s latest 2025 cost curves show that 30% of hard rock and 40% of chemical producers are underwater at current prices, yet production continues. Why?

The defence sector is emerging as a key demand market for critical raw materials (CRMs). They are required not only to enable the increasing role of batteries in electrified military vehicles but also for superalloy materials, rare earth permanent magnets, and advanced technologies. This Special Issue examines the key geopolitical and policy trends surrounding the essential role of CRMs in this sector.

The Trump administration has ordered a Section 232 investigation into the potential national security threat posed by the US' reliance on copper imports. In this Special Issue, Benchmark explores the implications of this from a price and demand perspective.

The economies of many countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region are heavily dependent on revenues generated by the oil and gas sector. However, the international push to diversify away from fossil fuels towards more sustainable energy sources is challenging the long-term viability of these economic models. Despite this, the energy transition also presents an unprecedented opportunity to diversify their economic models and maintain relevance on the global stage, especially through increasingly important critical mineral markets.

Battery recycling is key to creating a circular lithium ion battery industry. Recycling can reduce the uneven global distribution of critical minerals, by offering a localised source of secondary supply. However, there are technical, economic and geopolitical challenges to overcome in order to scale the industry up to the level required for recycling to contribute sizeable quantities of regionalised supply. Using Benchmark’s unique data and prices on the global recycling market, this report will provide a comprehensive overview of the state of play of the global recycling market, an understanding of how this market is developing, and insights into what is still required to establish a global lithium ion battery recycling supply chain.

In May's edition of Benchmark's Geo-Economic Briefing, we examine the recent US House bill aimed at rolling back IRA tax credits, as well the key macro economic indicators and other policy updated from around the world.

In April's edition of Benchmark's Geo-Economic Briefing, the report examines the US-Ukraine critical mineral deal, the first 100 days of Trump's second term as well as rounding up the latest geopolitical and policy updates from around the world.

President Trump has completed the first 100 days of his second term in office. During this period, the Trump Administration has announced and enacted many policy changes through Executive Orders, amounting to a number of notable implications for the energy storage revolution in the US and globally. Learn what these 100 days have meant for EV, battery, and critical mineral supply chains in this Special Issue.

Copper is indispensable to every stage of electricity generation, transmission, distribution, and consumption, making it a cornerstone of the global energy transition. As the world accelerates toward renewable energy, electrified transport, and upgraded power grids, copper’s role is only set to expand. The question is not whether demand will rise—rather whether supply can keep up.

In February's edition of Benchmark's Geo-Economic Briefing, the report examines the Ukraine's critical mineral resources and a potential deal with the US, the impact of the first month of Trump’s presidency on the currency markets, and the central priorities of the EU Clean Industrial Deal. Download the full report for an in-depth analysis of these dynamic global developments.

The progress seen in the lithium ion battery industry is set to continue with the emergence of new battery technologies. This report explores silicon anodes, solid-state batteries, and sodium ion batteries, discussing the state of their respective markets along with the strengths and weaknesses of each technology. The data and insights in the report are drawn from Benchmark's various new technology <a href="https://www.benchmarkminerals.com/forecasts">forecast products</a>.

Europan car manufacturers are predicted to miss this year’s EU emissions targets in quite some way and could face up to €10 billion in fines between them. 2024 was a rocky year for the European EV market which ended the year down -3% compared to 2023. This special report with Rho Motion looks at the potential fines facing European automakers, and the ways in which companies will try to mitigate them. Few are adequately prepared with billions of euros of fines on the line

Critical mineral markets came under intense downwards price pressure in 2024. In 2025, growing demand for critical minerals and processing capacity will add further complexity for participants trying to establish and predict prices. In this whitepaper, Benchmark’s expert analysts will explore the opportunities and risks facing the markets for energy transition materials over the next 12 months. What are the major factors that will affect each of these markets, and how is price risk management changing? Benchmark also shares its view on battery capacity as the gigafactory pipeline continues to expand around the world.

The world’s largest companies - from Exxon to Rio Tinto - are beginning to invest in battery minerals, as they look to benefit from the growth of clean energy and electric vehicles. This year, miner Rio Tinto agreed to acquire Arcadium Lithium in an all-cash deal for $6.7 billion. It will also spend $2.5 billion to expand its Rincon project in Argentina. Elsewhere, Exxon said it has developed a coke product for use in graphite anodes, while Norwegian oil giant Equinor acquired a 45% share in two lithium projects in the US. Why are these markets attractive to the big majors? This report looks at some of the reasons behind this flurry of dealmaking activity.

In November's edition of Benchmark's Geo-Economic Briefing, the report examines the impact of a more confrontational US trade policy on critical minerals and battery supply chains, alongside Indonesia's challenges in advancing its EV battery value chain. Download the full report for an in-depth analysis of these dynamic global developments.

Following President Elect Donald Trump’s successful election victory, this Analyst Insight examines the implications of this win for the Republican Party on the EV battery supply chain. On one hand, increased policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks are anticipated for the EV supply chain and commodity markets. Indeed, Benchmark expects EV adoption rates to slow, with supportive policies for EVs diminishing, resulting in a weakened outlook for raw material demand. On the other hand, this administration may emphasise onshoring and domestic production in mining and refining, adopting a hawkish trade policy that prioritises tariffs to encourage U.S.-based manufacturing and reduce reliance on foreign critical mineral supply chains.

The lithium ion battery supply chain is set to play a fundamental role in the road to electrification and the energy transition. As a result, all stages of the supply chain are coming under the global spotlight and sustainability credentials are increasingly coming under scrutiny, especially upstream. The increasing number of regulations and legislation on critical mineral supply chains is driving a shift towards more sustainable, localised, lower-carbon production. This report looks at the key sustainability topics for the lithium ion battery supply chain, from mining to battery production, using Benchmark’s leading ESG and sustainability data.

The 2024 US presidential election will have significant consequences for critical mineral demand and the electric vehicle (EV) supply chain. A Trump victory may weaken EV adoption, reducing demand for critical minerals like lithium and nickel, while Harris aims to strengthen Biden's green policies, supporting EV production and subsequently boosting critical mineral demand. This report dives into four potential scenarios and reviews what’s at stake for the future of US trade, climate policies, and critical mineral to EV battery supply chain dynamics under either administration. Download now to learn more!

<span style="font-weight: 400;">Saudi Arabia has begun to make inroads into the lithium ion supply chain as part of its efforts to diversify its fossil fuel economy. The country is already the world’s 6th largest producer of phosphate rock, is set to develop synthetic graphite production, and has several other battery raw material projects in development. Here, Benchmark provides an overview of how Saudi Arabia is positioning itself in the lithium ion economy. </span>

Chile is the biggest global copper producer and the second-biggest global lithium producer, both in terms of lithium mined and chemical supply.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> In this factsheet Benchmark provides a snapshot of Chile's role in the energy transition, key policy developments, and ESG trends. </span>

<div class="c-message_kit__blocks c-message_kit__blocks--rich_text"> <div class="c-message__message_blocks c-message__message_blocks--rich_text" data-qa="message-text"> <div class="p-block_kit_renderer" data-qa="block-kit-renderer"> <div class="p-block_kit_renderer__block_wrapper p-block_kit_renderer__block_wrapper--first"> <div class="p-rich_text_block" dir="auto"> <p class="p-rich_text_section">Direct Lithium Extraction promises to open up new sources of lithium supply this decade. As the industry scales up, Benchmark looks at the different technologies and the potential future supply from projects using DLE. The suite of DLE technologies could unlock vast “unconventional” brine resources located in western jurisdictions, at a time when building localised and diversified streams of critical minerals is increasingly a political priority in the US and European Union. It is also attracting an expanding ecosystem of new players in the lithium value chain – particularly oil companies – who will bring capital and expertise to the industry.</p> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="c-message__reply_bar c-message_kit__thread_replies c-message__reply_bar--progressive-disclosure-tip-wrapper-ia4" role="presentation" data-qa="reply_bar" data-stringify-ignore="true"></div>

<p dir="ltr">Lithium production will exceed 1 million tonnes LCE for the first time in 2024 and will more than double to 2.7 million by 2030. Today the majority of extraction occurs in South America and Australia, though China dominates the processing scene. Here, Benchmark draws on its proprietary lithium data to map out how the global lithium landscape is being transformed by battery demand.</p>

Sodium ion batteries are potentially safer, use more abundant materials than lithium ion batteries, and could become cheaper once manufacturing is scaled up. But their energy density is currently lower than lithium ion cells, limiting their uses to energy storage and certain low-range vehicles. The supply chain for sodium ion batteries also needs to be scaled up. Benchmark analysts explain the supply chain behind sodium ion batteries, and take a look at the potential applications.

Graphite demand from the battery sector is forecast to grow by 250% between 2023 and 2030 according to Benchmark’s Natural and Synthetic Graphite Forecasts. Production of natural and synthetic graphite needs to ramp up significantly to meet this surge in demand. Here, Benchmark draws on its data on the anode value chain to map out where production is being developed to meet graphite’s new reality.

Benchmark analysts explore the challenges and opportunities facing key battery markets over the next 12 months. Accelerating demand for critical minerals and processing capacity has made establishing and anticipating prices more complex. What are the major drivers of prices in each of these markets, and how will price risk management evolve? Benchmark also shares its view on battery capacity as the gigafactory pipeline builds out globally.

There are now over 400 gigafactories being developed worldwide, of which over 200 will be operational by the end of 2023. Drawing on Benchmark's proprietary data this infographic maps out the major regions where gigafactories are being built and the key data to the lithium ion story.