DRC to lift cobalt export ban and impose quotas through 2027

The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) will lift its ban on cobalt exports on 16 October, replacing it with a strict quota system that will govern mined output and exports until at least 2027.

In a communiqué published by Arecoms, the state cobalt regulator, Kinshasa announced a short extension of the current export suspension until 15 October before transitioning to monthly quota-based allocations. This timeline is consistent with Benchmark’s reporting in the 17 September Cobalt Price Report.

For the remainder of 2025, permitted exports will be capped at 18,125t of cobalt. In 2026, the annual quota is set at 96,600t, of which 87,000t will be distributed to producers on a pro rata basis, with 9,600t retained under Arecoms’ discretionary control. The framework will run through 2027, with adjustments possible if officials deem the market “imbalanced.”

Cobalt quotas to tighten stock levels

The new quota regime effectively rules out a return to free-trade exports, entrenching long-term state control over cobalt flows at the global origin of supply.

Prices have already absorbed policy-driven tightness: cobalt hydroxide prices have more than doubled YTD, holding above $14/lb, while cobalt sulphate trades above RMB55,000/t. In Asia, payables for mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP) remain above 72% of contained cobalt as refiners diversify away from restricted DRC flows and compete more aggressively for Indonesian units.

Benchmark’s assessment is that the introduction of quotas embeds a structural supply constraint through 2027. While this offers clarity after several rounds of regulatory uncertainty, it also locks in a higher price floor, even as demand from the nickel cobalt manganese (NCM) battery sector remains broadly rangebound.

Benchmark analysis further indicates that the quota system will reduce ex-DRC cobalt stocks to ~1 month of demand by Q4 26, and maintain them at that level through most of 2027. The exact impact will depend on output from exempted producers and the scale of discretionary Arecoms exports.

However, even if the regulator releases 100% of its strategic quota, Benchmark expects a risk of demand destruction to emerge in late 2027. Unless exempted producers are able to plug the gap, an upward quota adjustment would be required to meet sustained market demand.

Join us onTuesday 23rd Septemberat09:00 or 15:00 (GMT+1)for the Benchmark webinarUnpacking the DRC’s Cobalt Export Ban Decision: End or Extend?.

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