Chinese flake graphite miners feel the pressure as prices drop further in August

Chinese flake graphite producers are facing low margins and are reducing utilisation rates as prices of the battery material fell in August after flattening out at low levels in recent months.

Flake graphite has beenunder pressuredue to a combination of sluggish downstream demand and an increased preference forsynthetic graphiteas some anode producers continue to switch to the increasingly affordable option.

Spot prices for 94-95% C small meshflake graphitefell 5.2% month-on-month to $460 per tonne in the assessment period ending August 30, after five consecutive months of flat prices, according to theBenchmark Flake Graphite Price Assessment. Prices of the high purity, small mesh are at their lowest levels in over a decade and down 16.7% so far this year.

“The current low price environment has significantly reduced or in some cases eliminated the margins of a notable portion of the graphite producer market in China. Utilisation rates have dropped, with some producers in Jixi City and Luobei County pausing their operations,” said Alex Albinski, analyst at Benchmark.

Both Jixi and Luobei are in China’s Heilongjiang Province, a region that is forecast to supply 63% of the global flake graphite supply this year, according to theBenchmark Flake Graphite Forecast.

“Natural graphite operations willingly continue to operate at a loss in some cases instead of shutting down production in order to maintain market share, retain staff, and preserve customer relations, with the intention to recuperate losses, should prices rise,” said Albinski, adding that small flake graphite inventories continue to be high.

For the lower concentration, -100 mesh, 90-93% C flake graphite, prices fell 5.8% month-on-month in August at $365 per tonne, after five flat months, according to theBenchmark Flake Graphite Price Assessment. Prices are down 16.1% on a year-to-date basis.

Will low prices pose a risk to future projects?

Prices falling from an already depressed level can be detrimental to the development of new projects or expansion of existing capacity in the long-term, especially at a time when it’s becoming increasingly tough to secure financing.

This comes as flake graphite demand from batteries is forecast to increase threefold between now and 2030, according to theBenchmark Flake Graphite Forecast. Unless supply is sufficiently incentivised the industry will face expanding deficits as battery production ramps up.

“While there has been a reduction in utilisation rates and pausing of some higher cost operations in China, we still see significant interest in natural graphite supply chain development both within China and globally,” said Albinski.

New capacity continues to come online in China, as the country pushes for development of new domestic supply. Globally, there is interest in developing an ex-China graphite supply chain, with natural graphite projects being developed in east East Africa, North America, and elsewhere.

Growing preference for synthetic feedstock

Chinese lithium ion battery makers are also increasingly replacing flake graphite with synthetic graphite fortheir anode needsdue to the increasingly competitive price of synthetic graphite anode material, given the flexibility to use higher sulphur pet coke as feedstock as opposed to more costly needle cokes.

“We expect to see synthetic graphite material capturing greater anode market share from natural graphite due to the recent tighter cost parity between the feedstocks,” said Albinski.

Graphite processors will also continue to look foropportunitiesto save on feedstock costs and bring down their costs, particularly in a low price environment. “As a result, we expect increased use of non-needle and high sulphur cokes for synthetic graphite production,” said Albinski.

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