Can the US copper tariff address domestic supply gap?
Last week,President Donald Trump announced the US would impose a 50% tariff on copper imports, in a move that promises to shake-up global copper trade flows.
The tariff, which is due to enter force from early August, aims to bolster US copper production by prioritising domestic supply over foreign imports, thus reducing the US’s reliance on imports, which amounted to 45% of demand in 2024.
Benchmark data in the above infographic demonstrates that the deficit in refined copper supply is primarily a function of a lack of US smelting capacity, rather than a shortfall of raw materials.
In fact, the US is a net exporter of copper scrap and concentrates, which combined could more than offset the 720 kt of refined copper imported last year. But this is contingent on additional smelting capacity being built to process the material.
Although investment in new smelting capacity is more straightforward than at the mining level, the tariff is unlikely to immediately resolve this issue. Investors will be hesitant to make large-scale, multi-year commitments on the back of a policy that may well be reversed in four years time. Indeed, theTrump administration’s recent roll back of Biden-era tax incentivesfor clean energy-projects and electric vehicles is only likely to reinforce this view.
Therefore, the copper tariff is unlikely to significantly boost US refined supply in the short term. Rather, its more immediate effect will likely be higher copper prices in the US market and, ultimately, higher costs for American consumers.
The data in this infographic is derived from the Benchmark Copper Service. To learn more about Benchmark’s copper market coverage fill out the form below.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
>