Where are the world’s gigafactories?

There are over 240 operational gigafactories across the world, with this currentlyset to rise to over 400 by 2030as assessed byBenchmark’s Gigafactory Assessment.

Combined, these gigafactories have a2030 pipeline capacityof nine terawatt-hours (TWh).

Although82% of gigafactory capacity this year is located in China, Western policies aimed at encouragingdomestic productionsees this drop to 68% in 2030.

“China holds close to 70% of the battery cell pipeline capacity, which has led to significant policy movements in both Europe and North America in order to reduce reliance on Chinese cells for the EV transition,”Evan Hartley, an analyst at Benchmark, said.

Benchmark has mapped the 2030 gigafactory pipeline in a freeSpecial Issue available on Benchmark Source.

Disrupting China’s dominance

China is home to seven of theten largest battery makersby capacity today, withCATLfirmly in the top spot.

Although China will remain the dominant battery production centre in 2030, Western nations are investing and regulating their way into a stronger position in the market.

The US has been largely successful in this through President Biden’sInflation Reduction Act(IRA). With generous production tax incentives, the IRA has accelerated North America’s 2030 pipeline up to 1.3 TWh.

The IRA is explicitly designed to reduce China’s hold on the US EV market by excluding vehicles containing battery components and materials sourced from so-called “Foreign Entities of Concern” from the tax credits.

Although the exact definition of these entities is yet to be confirmed, it will effectively prevent automakers using batteries produced in China from accessing many of the credits. There is no explicit prohibition preventing a Chinese company building plants in the US to access the incentives, however.

In Europe, over half of the 1.2 TWh pipeline capacity for 2030 is located in Germany, Hungary and France, which are set to be home to 19 of the region’s 36 gigafactories.

Unlike the US, Europe is more accepting of Chinese companies building gigafactories there. In 2030, two of the five largest gigafactories in Europe will be operated by CATL in Hungary and Germany.

“With so much capacity in China another consequence has been the rise in Chinese companies pursuing overseas strategy in order to escape the strong domestic competition created by oversupply fears,” Hartley said.

Europe’s less exclusionary approach is reflected inBenchmark’s Lithium ion Battery Database, which forecasts that just 9.2% of North America’s battery production in 2030 is set to be owned by a Chinese company compared to 31% in Europe.

Critical raw material disconnect

The growth of the gigafactory pipeline will require a corresponding amount of growth in the upstream supply chain.

In this regard, Benchmark views lithium as the critical limiting mineral. In 2030, 2.7 million tonnes of lithium are expected to be produced, according toBenchmark’s Lithium Forecast.

This corresponds to just 3.4 TWh of lithium ion battery cell production, a far cry from the 7 TWh of batteries required ifgovernmental policy and company targetsare to be met, as per Benchmark’s high case demand scenario.

“Whilst not all this capacity will come online, the hypothetical raw material demand generated from the gigafactory pipeline will require 7.5 million tonnes of lithium annually by 2030, which really highlights the scale of the battery cell factory build out,” Hartley said.

Download Benchmark’s Global Gigafactories 2023 Map

Drawing on Benchmark’s proprietary data this infographic maps out the major regions where gigafactories are being built and the key data to the lithium ion story.

Download the maphere.