Lithium ion’s leading producers in 2030: China to dominate as West ramps up

An early mover in the lithium ion battery supply chain, China is home to a significant proportion of global supply and many of the largest companies. The country has the highest 2030 pipeline capacity at close to 6,300 gigawatt hours (GWh), totalling 67% of global capacity.

It follows that the largest Tier 1 manufacturers are Chinese companies, namely CATL and BYD with more than 1,000 GWh and 500 GWh respectively.

The US has the second highest capacity at almost 1,300 GWh, making up 14% of global capacity but only a fifth of China’s total. Tier 1 capacity makes up 58% of the US’ total battery capacity. Only Hungary (86%) and South Korea (95%) have a higher proportion of Tier 1 capacity and both countries have significantly lower total battery capacity.

South Korean and Japanese companies have a substantial presence in the US. Of the 1,200 GWh 2030 pipeline capacity, more than 700 GWh comes from LG Energy Solution, Samsung, SK On, and Panasonic.

The US’ desire to reduce its dependence from China for national security reasons has supported the build out of its lithium ion battery supply chain. In pursuit of this, the US has introduced policies like the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), a significant portion of which is aimed at building domestic cleantech industries. Stipulations like the Foreign Entity of Concern clause of the IRA encourage OEMs to source materials and products from outside of China.

Hungary has the highest Tier 1 capacity in Europe and has been the beneficiary of €16 billion ($17.7 billion) worth of Chinese foreign direct investment. CATL and EVE Energy’s projects are forecast to produce 68 GWh of lithium ion batteries in 2030, according to Benchmark’sLithium ion Battery Database.

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