Lithium chemical prices fall as inventory builds
Lithium chemical producers and traders are increasing their lithium stocks asChinese supplyramps up after a slow period due to annual maintenance operations.
Inventory is also building due to a larger than expected seasonal dip in January electric vehicle sales in China.
Market participants told Benchmark that they anticipate chemical inventory levels to rise further next month as converters work through improving availability of spodumene andmica feedstocks in the country.
“We are seeing a rise in inventory levels of both lithium chemicals and cathode materials, driven by a ramp up of production post Chinese New Year and a slow-down of demand amid uncertainty sparked by US tariffs,” said Alex Albinski, a lithium analyst at Benchmark.
What impact is this having on prices?
Increased inventory levels are exertingdownward pressure on lithium chemical prices. This is despite processors already contending with reduced margins due torelatively high spodumene prices compared to chemical prices.
This fall in chemical prices is despite pressure from global spodumene producers, aiming to maintain price discipline.
“We have seen a push from some of the Australian spodumene majors to maintain prices at current levels, however on the flip side, current chemicals prices in China are limiting margin for conversion,” Albinski said.
Where is inventory building up?
According toBenchmark’s Monthly Lithium Inventory Tracker, chemical inventories are building both at chemical producers and converters and at traders and exchanges.
In contrast, chemical inventories are falling at cathode manufacturers, as these players look to draw down existing stock to produce cathode material without replacement of chemicals amid a more uncertain near-term demand outlook.
Meanwhile, cathode producers are struggling to sell this finished cathode active material onto cell producers, who are trying to work through CAM inventory rather than purchase more, given expectations of weak end-user battery demand.
Benchmark’s new Lithium Inventory Tracker provides monthly insight into stocks of lithium chemicals and cathode active material inventory in China.
Now included as part ofBenchmark’s Lithium Price AssessmentandForecastsubscriptions, this additional data enriches the picture of near-term supply-demand dynamics by bringing clarity to how chemical and cathode inventory levels are changing across the main points in the supply chain.
To find out more about the Lithium Inventory Tracker and the wider Price Assessment or Forecast subscriptions, fill out the form below:
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